Discover more from PharmaFiles by Aussie17
Cancer Drug Shortages!
And a quick look at NFL player deaths for the last ten years
A few days after I wrote about accelerating sales of Cancer Drugs, fake news Media NBC reported that there are shortages in cancer drugs. [SOURCE]
My article on the acceleration of Cancer Drugs:
What Drug Shortages Mean to Big Pharma
It’s essential to understand what drug shortage means to Big Pharma. It is one of those events that they try to avoid as much as possible. When a drug shortage happens, the market usually has an anomaly.
Let me explain why.
There are a lot of negative consequences when drug shortages occur. Big Pharma gets fined by government regulators if they run out of certain essential drugs. Depending on the drug, we must work with distributors to maintain a healthy stock level (usually 60-90 days of inventory).
Hospitals and Pharmacies have agreements with Distributors, and they keep a smaller inventory.
When a drug shortage happens, it means the 60-90 days of inventory dried up. It translates into decreased sales (90 days = three months). Imagine if Pfizer loses three months of sales on their recently declared 2022 Sales of 100 Billion. That would equate to a 25% decrease in sales (25 Billion), and their stock price will tank. Of course, I am using an extreme example to illustrate the point.
On top of that, drug sales don't pick up even when the stock replenishes because patients have moved on to other alternative competitors' drugs. So, on top of losing current sales, they are also losing future sales. As a result, the patient's Net Value decreases dramatically when that happens.
In Pharma, we are taught to calculate every Patient's Net Value - how much money we can make from every patient. I wrote about how Pharma forecasts a Patient's Net Value here:
Anyway, the news that cancer drugs are facing shortages is somewhat alarming, but it is not surprising. As I explained in my previous articles, there is a sudden uptick in cancer drug sales (and certain heart diseases).
One of the cancer drugs facing shortages is Pluvicto (sold by Novartis).
Pluvicto shortage is an interesting case. It is indicated for Prostate Cancer and was only approved in March 2022.
In Pharma, when you launch a new drug, you want to avoid drug shortages. We spend a lot of time and effort forecasting sales before launching a drug. In fact, we have dedicated teams working on Drug Launches. I explained previously that the critical part of the drug lifecycle happens in Phase 1. This is where we want to accelerate sales as much as possible. When we forecast a new drug, it is better to err on the side of overproduction rather than underproduction.
The fact that a one-year-old Prostate Cancer drug faced shortages tell me that something went wrong with the forecasting. The unexpected uptick in prostate cancer can be one of the key reasons.
Excess death continues…
Excess deaths continue worldwide, and the UK reported 20.9% excess deaths in the week ending March 2023. This translates to around 2000 more people dying weekly in the UK. The good news is that we do not see a drastic acceleration of excess death. However, I suspect cancer rates are accelerating, which will translate to an acceleration in excess deaths in a later timeframe.
Damar Hamlin’s Press Conference
Damar Hamlin had a press conference this week and announced that he had Commotio Cordis. I am very sceptical of his announcement. It doesn’t take a whole three months to diagnose Commotio Cordis. I suspect Damar had a contract negotiation that went on for three months with NFL and their sponsors. The contract negotiations would shut him up by linking the vaccines to his heart issues, and they probably promised him a salary even if he couldn’t play anymore.
When I was in Pharma, I had experience dealing with this kind of discussion. You can read it here:
Meanwhile, another NFL Player, Chris Smith, died suddenly at 31.
Some pro-MRNA experimental sceptics say young NFL Players die yearly, even before the pandemic. So I ran a quick analysis of NFL players and coaches (under age 50) who died in the last ten years. Here is what I found.
On average, from 2013 to 2020, there were around 13 deaths. In fact, in 2020, when COVID hit, there were only ten deaths before we started the experimental vaccinations.
After vaccinations, there are 20 deaths each for 2021 and 2022, which equates to excess deaths of 50% (20/13). This figure is even higher than the national excess deaths of 15-20%. I suspect it is due to the high vaccination rates of NFL players.
Young, vaccinated people are suffering from heart conditions, especially athletes. Look at the recent bombshell report of ambulance call-outs for people under 30. It skyrocketed around mid-2021 after the population had been double vaccinated.
During the same week, a former NHL player died at 38 after suffering a heart attack. A coincidence?
Update: Just a few hours after I posted this, an incident happened in my state Victoria where a local footy match got abandoned after a 26-year-old player suffered cardiac arrest during midgame.
Signing off for now
PS: I’ve been busy with real life and exploring other ways to create an income. I want to keep this substack free, but I appreciate any subscription donations!
I appreciate it if you share my post with your friends too!